The most intense phase of the US-Israeli offensive against Iran may still be ahead, according to statements from senior American military and civilian officials. President Donald Trump has authorized a dramatic escalation in US firepower, his defense secretary has confirmed, while the Israeli military chief of staff has promised new and undisclosed operations that will further dismantle Iran’s military capabilities. For a conflict that has already killed more than 1,230 Iranians and displaced over a million Lebanese, that is a sobering prospect.
The current phase of the campaign has already tested the limits of conventional military power. American B-2 stealth bombers, the most capable aircraft in the US arsenal, have struck Iran’s deeply buried ballistic missile infrastructure with dozens of specially designed penetrating munitions. A large Iranian naval vessel has been hit and possibly sunk. Israel has issued mass evacuation orders in Lebanon and struck Hezbollah’s command and logistics infrastructure across Beirut and its suburbs. The defense secretary has said all of this is prelude to what comes next.
Iran has not waited passively for the escalation. The Revolutionary Guards have launched fresh missile and drone attacks against US military installations and energy infrastructure in Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain. Additional strikes have been aimed at Israel. Hezbollah has maintained its military campaign in Lebanon, firing rockets and wounding Israeli soldiers near the border. Iran has promised to introduce new weapons into the conflict without specifying their nature.
The humanitarian toll of the current phase is already severe. More than 1,230 Iranians have been killed. Six Americans have died. Over 200 Lebanese are dead and nearly 800 wounded. An airstrike on an Iranian girls’ school killed more than 100 students. More than one million Lebanese are displaced. Iran’s internet is at approximately 1% of normal capacity. The UN has called for de-escalation while both sides prepare for a larger fight.
The preparation for greater escalation raises fundamental questions. What targets remain to be struck that the current campaign has not already hit? What new weapons does Iran actually possess, and how much additional damage can they inflict? And at what point, if ever, does the destruction cross a threshold that produces the political collapse Trump is seeking rather than the hardened national resistance that historical precedent suggests is equally possible? The answers will come soon, and they will be costly.
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